Showing posts with label KiOR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label KiOR. Show all posts

Friday, November 8, 2013

KiOR optimistic despite third-quarter loss

http://www.cdispatch.com/news/article.asp?aid=28655&TRID=1

William Browning


KiOR on Thursday reported a third quarter net loss of $43.1 million, or 40 cents per share. This is a $4.6 million increase in net loss from the year's second quarter.

The third quarter ended Sept. 30. 

But the Texas-based company's president and CEO, Fred Cannon, said KiOR is seeing progress at its Columbus facility. 

"We believe that we are turning the corner toward steady state operations," he said. 

KiOR's plant in Columbus is a biomass fluid catalytic cracking unit that converts biomass into renewable crude oil to produce vehicle oil. The facility produced more than 323,000 gallons of fuel in the third quarter. With that, the year's total production of cellulosic fuel at the facility through eight months stood at 508,975 gallons. 

"The number of gallons are not huge yet, but they are coming," Cannon said. 

Cannon said the company has gotten off to a good start in the fourth quarter. Last month the facility produced 167,087 gallons of fuel, he said, noting that it is the highest amount in a single month since the facility began converting wood chips to fuel earlier this year. 

"As a result, we believe that with stable production over the balance of the year, our full year production levels will exceed one million gallons," Cannon said. 

In September, the company announced its intention to build a second biorefinery on The Island in Columbus. Cannon said the recent achievements at the current plant support that plan and the company's engineering team has been "spending time on the ground" in Columbus designing a plan for what KiOR has dubbed Columbus II. 

"Based on what we have seen over the last several weeks...we still believe that this is the right path for the company to take," Cannon said during a conference call Thursday. "Bringing the plan to fruition will, we believe, enable KiOR to achieve cash-flow profitability in 2015." 

The company has received $100 million in committed equity financing from Khosla Ventures, an investment company in California that committed $85 million, and Microsoft chairman Bill Gates, who committed $15 million. Those commitments, the company said last month, will help the company move forward with the Columbus II plan. 

The current plant in Columbus, which employees roughly 100 people, is a 500-ton per day facility. Columbus II will be built adjacent to it and also be a 500-ton per day facility that could share infrastructure and employees with Columbus I, according to KiOR. 

Once started, construction of Columbus II will take approximately 18 months. 

The company's longterm plan still involves building a 1,500-ton per day facility in Natchez. 

KiOR is facing a pending lawsuit by a group of KiOR stockholders who have complained about the company's inability to meet projected production targets.  

During 2013's third quarter KiOR's total revenues were $720,000. Total revenues for the second quarter were $239,000.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

KiOR Inc : The Rosen Law Firm Announces Investigation of Securities Claims Against KiOR, Inc. - KIOR

http://www.4-traders.com/KIOR-INC-8257865/news/KiOR-Inc-The-Rosen-Law-Firm-Announces-Investigation-of-Securities-Claims-Against-KiOR-Inc-KIOR-17194125/

08/15/2013 | 02:05pm US/Eastern


The Rosen Law Firm, P.A. announces that it is investigating potential securities claims against KiOR, Inc. (NASDAQ: KIOR) resulting from allegations that the Company may have issued materially inaccurate statements about the Company's financial condition and prospects.

On May 9, 2013, KiOR held an earnings call where the Company's CEO Fred Cannon forecasted that total fuel production for its Columbus facility would be between 300,000 and 500,000 gallons during the second quarter of 2013, which is in line with the Company's estimate of producing between 3 to 5 million gallons of fuel for 2013. On August 8, 2013, KiOR disclosed that it had only shipped 75,000 gallons of fuel from this facility during the second quarter. As a result, KiOR announced revenue of only $240,000 for the quarter, approximately 12% of the $1.93 million average of five analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg. On this news, KiOR shares fell from a closing of $4.76 per share on August 7, 2013 to $2.89 on August 13, 2013.

The Rosen Law Firm is preparing a securities class action lawsuit on behalf of KiOR investors. If you purchased KiOR stock prior to August 8, 2013 please visit the website at http://www.rosenlegal.com to join the class action. You may also contact Phillip Kim, Esq. or Kevin Chan, Esq. of The Rosen Law Firm toll free at 866-767-3653 or via e-mail at pkim@rosenlegal.com or kchan@rosenlegal.com.

The Rosen Law Firm represents investors throughout the globe, concentrating its practice in securities class actions and shareholder derivative litigation.

Attorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome.



The Rosen Law Firm P.A.
Laurence Rosen, Esq.
Phillip Kim, Esq.
Kevin Chan, Esq.
275 Madison Avenue 34th Floor
New York, New York 10016
Tel: 212-686-1060
Toll Free: 1-866-767-3653
Fax: 212-202-3827
lrosen@rosenlegal.com
pkim@rosenlegal.com
kchan@rosenlegal.com
www.rosenlegal.com

Monday, August 12, 2013

KiOR announces Q2 financial results, discusses expansion plans

http://biomassmagazine.com/articles/9308/kior-announces-q2-financial-results-discusses-expansion-plans/

By Erin Voegele | August 12, 2013
 
KiOR Inc. has released financial results for the second quarter, reporting operational progress at its Columbus, Miss., plant. The company shipped more than 75,000 gallons of cellulosic fuels during the three-month period, which ended June 30.

“I am happy to report that Columbus has made significant operational progress and is continuing to build its on-stream performance and reliability," said Fred Cannon, president and CEO of KiOR. "In addition to making our first shipment of cellulosic gasoline in the second quarter, we more than doubled the run time of our core technology, the Biomass Fluid Catalytic Cracking Unit, to 43 percent in the quarter, up from 20 percent in the first quarter."

During a call to discuss the financial results, Cannon spoke about three phases he said are necessary to bring a first-of-king facility to a steady state of operation. First, there is a reliability phase that concentrates on simply running the facility and building its on-stream percentage, he said. Second is a throughput phase, which focuses bringing the facility to nameplate capacity while maintaining the on-stream percentage. Finally, the third phase focuses on optimization, during which process efficiency is optimized, increasing yield. According to Cannon, the facility has achieved significant progress of the first phase and is beginning to work on the second stage.

Cannon also noted that the plant’s CFCC unit operated for just under 40 days during the second quarter, which doubled the quarterly on-stream percentage. “Our first run was April 22 to April 27,” he said. “We then started the BFCC back up on May 6 and rant it until May 12. We decided to terminate both of these runs due to feed synchronization issues. Nothing about the KiOR technology prevented the runs from going longer.” The BFCC was brought back online on May 30 and operated through June 29. The 30-day run more than doubled the facility’s previous longest individual run.

According to Cannon, a small repair requirement in the wood yard necessitated the shutdown of that run.

He also stressed that nothing about the KiOR technology resulted in these operational terminations.

“As has been the case since we first started the facility, these issues are not related to our core technology,” Cannon continued. “They are simply part of the break-in process, and again, let me reiterate that our goal last quarter was to keep the plant running as long as possible, not to push the plant from a throughput standpoint. Our focus was on reliability, and we typically ran Columbus at 40 percent to 50 percent of its nameplate capacity.”

Cannon said longer runs are KiOR’s main objective in the third quarter. He also stressed that the plant is currently operating, with high quality oil being produced and stored. “I anticipate that the hydrotreater will start up shortly, meaning we will have fuel ready to ship in the very near term,” he said, noting that the company’s focus will likely not shift to process optimization and increasing yield until the fourth quarter. “I look for us to achieve normal, steady-state optimal operations at Columbus in the first half of 2014,” Cannon continued.

During the call, Cannon also spoke about KiOR’s long-term business plan, highlighting two developments that have factored into the company’s strategic thinking. “First, we believe that we have made some important gains in our research and development efforts that…can have a significant impact on the operating efficiency and catalyst performance of our technology at a commercial scale.” Second, Cannon said KiOR is beginning to see traction on the commercial development of feedstocks other than Southern Yellow Pine, including hardwood, energy crops and waste products.

Cannon said the company expects to be able to procure these alternative feedstocks at a lower price.

As a result of the two developments, combined with progress at the Columbus facility, Cannon said KiOR is considering an alternative growth strategy that would involve the construction of a second 500 bone-dry-ton-per-day facility adjacent to the existing Columbus plant. While Cannon stressed that the company is still in the early stages of evaluating the possible expansion, the move is exciting because it could reduce the cost and time required to design, engineer and construct the second facility. Cannon also said building a second plant adjacent to the Columbus plant would be expected to reduce start-up and commissioning risk as a result of shared experienced personnel, site infrastructure, equipment and operational knowledge. “On a preliminary basis, we expect that the total cost of this second 500 ton-per-day commercial facility in Columbus will range from $175 million to $225 million,” he said, noting that current estimates shows cellulosic gasoline and diesel could be produced at a cost of $2.60 to $2.80 per gallon at a yield of 72 gallons per bone dry ton. At a yield of 92 gallons per bone dry ton, the cost would drop to $2.20 to $2.30 per gallon.

KiOR has also continued to refine the design for its proposed facility in Natchez, Miss. According to Cannon, the current estimated cost to build that plant is $560 million to $600 million. “We also estimate that this facility will be able to produce cellulosic gasoline and diesel at a per-unit unsubsidized cost between $2.25 and $2.48 per gallon at our current yield of 72 gallons per bone dry ton, excluding cost of financing and facility depreciation,” he said. “This would decrease to between $1.81 and $1.96 per gallon at our short-term yield target of 92 gallons per ton.”

Regarding quarterly financial results, KiOR reported a net loss of $38.5 million, or 36 cents per share, compared to a net loss of $31.1 million, or 30 cents per share, during the previous quarter. During the second quarter of 2012. KiOR reported a net loss of $23 million, or 22 cents per share.
Revenues for the quarter equaled $239,000, up from $71,000 during the first quarter of the year. The company posted no revenues for the second quarter of 2012.

Saturday, August 10, 2013

The promise of advanced biofuels

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2013/0810/The-promise-of-advanced-biofuels

Corn ethanol has gone a long way to reducing our oil use, Holland writes, but it's gone about as far as it can go due to the 'blend wall.' The next generation of biofuels can pick up the slack, with support from the EPA's Renewable Fuels Standard.

By Andrew HollandGuest blogger / August 10, 2013 

A process manager works on a lab scale fermentation trial of cellulosic feed stock to create a new source for making ethanol other than corn. One of the best ways to reduce our oil use is to develop biofuel replacements, Holland writes.
Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post/AP/File

This week, the EPA announced that it was adjusting the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) in order to reflect market realities. As originally proposed earlier this year, the rule called for 14 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol, but the final rule sets a requirement for 6 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol this year.

However, as all the news stories focus on how the EPA has “backed down”, what goes overlooked is that there is finally a cellulosic biofuel industry in which commercial production has started.

KiOR’s biorefinery in Columbus, Mississippi started commercial production in March using wood chips to produce cellulosic fuels, and Ineos just announced on July 31 that their Indian River BioEnergy plant in Florida has begun operations to make biofuels from plant waste. Both of these are now operating at full commercial scale. Whether they’re making money yet, we don’t know, but the fact that they’re producing large volumes of cellulosic biofuels may be a historic turning point. These developments are important steps towards developing a real advanced biofuel industry that can help move us toward a point where we have other options for how to fuel our cars and trucks.

Robert Rapier, writing about this issue in January, had called commercial cellulosic ethanol production a “unicorn” because it was something that doesn’t exist, no matter how much we want it to. Today, we can honestly say that is no longer the case.

Legislative Background


Since 2010, under the requirements of the bipartisan Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, the EPA has been required to include a standard for cellulosic ethanol. Under the law, that was to start at 100 million gallons in 2010 and increase to 1 billion gallons by 2013. However, the law gives the EPA wide latitude to set the RFS based on current technology and production capacity. That’s why the actual RFS rule for 2010 was 6 million gallons, not 100 million and the rule for 2013 was originally 14 million gallons, now down to 6 million. The RFS was intended to provide an incentive for the development of cellulosic fuels – and it seems to have finally done the job.

Now – to be clear – this has been a long time coming. When I was working on the Hill in ’06 and ’07 as we were considering updating and increasing the RFS, we had the ethanol lobbyists and businesses come in and sell us on the corn ethanol RFS as a stepping stone towards cellulosic ethanol. At the time, they told us that cellulosic was only two to three years from commercialization. It turns out they were off by a few years – but in that intervening time, we had a deep financial crisis that made financing anything difficult. It turns out that financing a factory for an unproven fuel that will compete with the largest incumbent companies on the planet was nearly impossible.

This differential between what Congress anticipated in the law and the reality of actual production shows how difficult it has been to bring these to market.

Why Do We Still Need the RFS?


Let’s remember, reducing our oil use is an important step for national security. It reduces our dependence on volatile prices, set by whatever the most recent unrest in the Middle East is; for example, over the last month, we have seen a 10% oil price spike on news of a restart of Egypt’s unrest – and they’re not even a major oil producer! I’ve written about how development of Advanced Biofuels would help our National Security by giving consumers an option to separate from the global oil market.

One of the best ways to reduce our oil use is to develop biofuel replacements. Corn ethanol has gone a long way – it now makes up 10% of the U.S. fuel supply. However, it also has gone about as far as it can go due to the upcoming ‘blend wall.’ Today, companies like KiOR, Virent, and many others are moving forward with the next generation of biofuels. The RFS ensures that they have buyers when they bring their product to market. There is an increasing discussion in Congress about dismantling the RFS – but the development of advanced biofuels are too important to leave hanging without support. The EPA announcement shows the flexibility of the RFS, and the breakthroughs in commercial production of cellulosic biofuels show that it is working.\

Source: Commercial Production of Cellulosic Biofuels is No Longer a Unicorn

Friday, August 9, 2013

The slow creep of next-gen biofuels: KiOR misses production targets

http://gigaom.com/2013/08/09/the-slow-creep-of-next-gen-biofuels-kior-misses-production-targets/



Summary: Next-gen biofuel company KiOR misses its production targets from its new biocrude making plant by 75 percent. It’s still slow going for these companies trying to scale up and compete with oil.
If you’ve ever read anything about the next-generation of biofuels — the ones made from plant waste, trash, or energy crops called cellulosic ethanol — then you know that they’ve forever been trapped on the brink of commercialization. The thesis still seems to apply for the young companies that are trying to scale up.

This week KiOR, a venture capital-backed startup that went public in the Summer of 2011, revealed in its second quarter earnings that it was about 75 percent below its forecast for producing and shipping its next-gen biofuel last quarter. KiOR shipped 75,000 gallons last quarter from its Columbus, Mississippi plant, but was hoping to ship between 300,000 and 500,000 gallons in the quarter.

Revenue for the quarter was of course below estimates, too, alongside the slower than expected scale up in production. As a result, KiOR’s stock dropped almost 10 percent on Thursday, rallied a bit and is now trading around $4.14 on Friday. KiOR went public at $15 per share in mid-2011.

But it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that’s been following any next-gen biofuel startup. It takes eons to get to the scale where they can make biofuels for cheap enough to compete with oil.

KiOR started producing its biocrude at the Columbus plant last November and started shipping it shortly after that. At the time KiOR CEO Fred Cannon called the first shipment “the world’s first cellulosic gasoline and diesel fuel products.”

KiOR has developed technology that allows it to convert biomass (plants and bio waste) into a bio substitute for crude oil. The company emerged in late 2007 as a joint venture between Khosla Ventures and Netherlands-based biofuel startup BIOeCON. Khosla Ventures provided the early rounds of funding and BIOeCON provided the intellectual property for its “biomass catalytic cracking process,” a thermochemical process that’s been used in the oil industry for decades and which turns out can also produce biocrude from grass, wood and plant waste.

Cannon has described KiOR’s technology as being able to do in seconds what has taken millions of years in nature (the natural process of how biomass has been crunched into oil).

About a year ago I wrote a really long indepth piece on KiOR. Check it out here: The perils of cleantech investing: KiOR and the long term, high risk view.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Judge Rules Biomass Plants Have to Obey the Law, While Usefulness is Questioned

http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.display/id/25085

07/25/2013 11:16 AM

A federal appeals judge has ruled that power plants that turn biomass into energy also have to obey the Clean Air Act.

It closed a loophole under which the Environment Protection Agency (EPA) exempted biomass plants from the same emission rules that all other power plants are subject to.


“Burning trees to generate electricity is dangerous, polluting, and ought to be limited to protect people and the environment,” says Kevin Bundy, a senior attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate Law Institute, which challenged EPA's policy. “This important decision will reduce respiratory ailments, protect forests and help ensure a healthier, more livable climate.” 

The ruling reflects recent research that finds biomass-fueled power plants emit significantly more carbon per kilowatt than fossil fuel power plants - even coal. It can take decades before that excess carbon is “re-sequestered” by subsequent plant growth, explains the Center for Biological Diversity.

“Today’s ruling upholds EPA’s authority to regulate pollution that drives climate change. The court’s decision is grounded in an understanding that the science shows that biomass fuels, including tree-burning, can make climate disruption worse,” says Ann Weeks, legal director of the Clean Air Task Force, who argued the case for petitioners, which include the Conservation Law Foundation and Natural Resource Council of Maine. “The court clearly noted that the atmosphere can’t tell the difference between fossil fuel carbon dioxide and carbon dioxide emitted by burning trees.” 

"The court's decision is particularly important for the Southeast. Now we have an opportunity for a more sensible, science-based policy, one that avoids clearcutting the region's wildlife-rich forests for energy while intensifying climate change impacts," says Frank Rambo of the Southern Environmental Law Center, which represented the Dogwood Alliance, Georgia ForestWatch, South Carolina Coastal Conservation League and Wild Virginia in the case. 

In the case of wood, the adverse impact is exacerbated because of the large amounts of carbon released from deep forest soils as a result of disturbances such as logging, finds research released in June by Dartmouth College. Most global atmospheric studies don't consider deep soil, which could store up to half of all carbon in forest soils. 

Clearcutting

"Our paper suggests the carbon in mineral soil may change more rapidly, and result in increases in atmospheric CO2, as a result of disturbances such as logging," says Dartmouth Professor Andrew Friedland. "Increased reliance on wood may have the unintended effect of increasing the transfer of carbon from mineral soil to the atmosphere." 

Woody biomass including trees grown on plantations, managed natural forests and logging waste, is used for 75% of global biofuel production. 

“If we are going to start changing recommendations and tell people to leave oil and coal in the ground, and burn more wood, we first need solid science behind that recommendation,” says Friedland. “Wood still might be a green choice, but let’s know all the consequences of everything that we do—and some of these consequences are not currently being discussed or appreciated or evaluated.” 

Next-Generation Biofuel Investments in Doubt 
 
Meanwhile, Europe’s biggest oil companies, BP and  Shell, are scaling back investments in biofuels because they don't see them becoming economical to produce until at least 2020. Exxon (remember all those algae TV ads?) and Chevron gave up several years ago, when they didn't see enough profit.

Why bother with these longer term investments when they're making a killing on their core business, oil and gas?
 
Both Shell and BP, however, continue to expand in their sugarcane ethanol businesses in Brazil. Shell has 23 refineries there and BP is spending $350 million to double production.

Global investment in biofuel production was $57 million in the first quarter, the lowest since 2006 and off significantly from a peak of $7.6 billion in the last quarter of 2007, reports Bloomberg
 
“Progress in deploying these technologies has been slower than many had anticipated and what’s needed to keep on track with our aspirations,” Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Bloomberg. “Many potential producers have found it difficult to secure the capital they need.” 

"This is very capital intensive," Phil New, head of BP's biofuels program, told Bloomberg. "There's lots of difficult engineering. It will take time for scale-up."

Last year, BP scrapped plans for a $300 million refinery in Florida, although it just opened a $520 million wheat-to-ethanol facility in the UK with DuPont. Shell canceled plans in April for a straw-to-ethanol facility and also pulled back funding for biofuel enzymes at Codexis and an algae venture with HR BioPetroleum.

"All of these technologies are capable of working technically," Matthew Tipper, Shell's head of alternative energy, told Bloomberg. "It was purely on cost that this technology couldn't be taken forward. Fuels have to be cheap enough to burn. Otherwise no-one will buy them."

Both the US and Europe are counting on biofuels to help reduce emissions that contribute to global warming. To meet climate targets, biofuels must account for 27% of transportation fuels by 2050, up from just 3% in 2012, says IEA. 

Last year, ethanol made from sugar or corn was the major source of biofuels - almost all of the 1.9 million barrels produced a day. Next-generation technologies are focused on supplies that don't compete with food, such as switch grass, corn stalks, jatropha and algae, as well as wood waste from the lumber and paper industries. 

The first commercial-scale cellulosic biofuels plants are coming online, from companies like KiORAbengoa Bioenergy, BlueFire Renewables, Mascoma and Fulcrum Bioenergy. The plants will boost US cellulosic biofuel output 20-fold this year. At an anticipated 9.6 million gallons of production, it falls short of government’s target of 14 million gallons.

Big oil has basically decided to let these smaller firms develop the technologies and then surely they'll step in.

Last year, the EU set limits on crop-based biofuels because of rising food prices worldwide and shifted the focus to agricultural residues like straw, and potentially algae.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Chevron Defies California On Carbon Emissions

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-18/chevron-defies-california-on-carbon-emissions.html




Chevron Corp. (CVX) helped write the first-in-the-nation rule ordering reduced carbon emissions from cars and trucks. Its biofuels chief spoke at the ceremony where California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed the executive order in 2007, the same year the oil company pledged to develop a gasoline replacement from wood.

Now Chevron is leading a lobbying and public relations campaign to undercut the California mandate aimed at curbing global warming, two years after the state started phasing it in. Research on commercially viable climate-friendly products has come to naught, stymied by the poor economics of coaxing hydrocarbons from plants’ stubborn cell walls, according to Chevron officials.

  Oil Firms Break Promise on Biofuels as Chevron Defies California
An employee works on a Chevron Corp. sign at a gasoline station in San Francisco, California. Like other major investor-owned oil companies, Chevron and ExxonMobil accept climate-change science and acknowledge carbon emissions contribute to global warming. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg 

April 18 (Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. helped write California's first-in-the-nation law ordering reduced carbon emissions from cars and trucks. Now Chevron is active in lobbying and public relations efforts to undercut the mandate. Bloomberg's Kevin Thrash reports. (Source: Bloomberg)
 
“We’ve looked at 100 feedstocks, 50 conversion technologies, worked to shape this law the best we can, and we have not come up with a solution to be able to comply,” said Rhonda Zygocki, Chevron’s executive vice president of policy and planning, in a Feb. 4 talk at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. Rick Zalesky, the Chevron official who celebrated the order’s signing with Schwarzenegger, was blunt last June when he declared the low-carbon standard “not achievable.”

While still promoting its commitment to renewable energy, the second largest U.S. oil company quietly shelved most of its biofuels work in 2010, according to internal documents and former Chevron officials. It decided products with potential returns of at least 5 percent weren’t enough for a multinational used to margins triple that, said Paul Bryan, a former vice president of biofuels technology.

Cutting Funding 


“The best outcome for the oil companies is if nothing changes,” said Bryan, who left Chevron in 2010 after 15 years. “You can make money today making advanced biofuels -- you just won’t make as much money as the oil companies would like.”

Chevron’s switch is part of the fossil fuel industry’s hardening line against efforts to supplant petroleum in the $500 billion U.S. transportation fuels market.

ExxonMobil Corp., the largest U.S. oil company, has also retreated from a biofuels effort. It slashed funding for research into making the fuel from algae, according to former employees involved in the project, and with Chevron is pressing California to postpone the low-carbon standard. In Europe, meanwhile, carbon credits for December plunged to an all-time low yesterday, making it cheaper for companies to buy the right to emit more carbon dioxide gas under the European Union’s system for controlling global warming.

‘Shockingly Small’


Like other major investor-owned oil companies, Chevron and ExxonMobil accept climate-change science and acknowledge carbon emissions contribute to global warming. They say they’re pushing back against the California rule because it demands technology that may not be available for years, and will cost jobs and send pump prices soaring if not rewritten.

The oil industry is lobbying to stop other states from following California. All the while, oil companies are dedicating few resources to the advances in biofuels they talk about needing to make, said Mary Nichols, head of the California Air Resources Board, which enforces the carbon rule.

“It’s shockingly small given their profitability,” Nichols said. “We’re dealing with companies with revenues in excess of the state of California.”

San Ramon, California-based Chevron had its second most profitable year in 2012, posting net income of $26.2 billion on $222.6 billion in sales, the vast majority from petroleum. California’s revenue in fiscal year 2012 was $87.8 billion.

Doomed Project


The company touts its biofuels program on its Facebook page and website. “It’s time oil companies get behind the development of renewable energy,” a headline on the website says. The text says a joint venture with Weyerhaeuser (WY) Co., Catchlight Energy LLC, is “working to commercialize advanced biofuels made from forest-based biomass.”

While Catchlight still exists, Chevron and the forest products company three years ago scratched a plan to spend more than $400 million and build commercial plants by 2014, according to an internal Catchlight business plan.

The plants were expected to generate a profit of 5 percent to 10 percent, according to Bryan and other former Chevron officials -- short of the average 17 percent the company earns on capital investments, including oil and gas exploration and production, for which it has budgeted $33 billion this year.

The Catchlight plan was doomed when management decreed biofuels had to compete with fossil fuel projects for funds, said Bryan, a lecturer in chemical and biomolecular engineering at the University of California at Berkeley. He said he left Chevron, taking a severance package during a staff downsizing, because he didn’t believe the company was committed to biofuels.

Too Ambitious


Chevron was optimistic when it worked on the low-carbon fuel standard with Schwarzenegger’s team in 2007, said Desmond King, president of Chevron Technology Ventures, which oversees emerging technologies. Former biofuels chief Zalesky, now the company’s general manager of crude and manufacturing strategy, was among several Chevron officials who helped craft the rule.

As the company put theory into practice, trying to make a propellant out of wood’s sugar-rich fibers, it realized the rule was too ambitious, King said. The research didn’t lead to anything that would be commercially viable, he said.

Even a 10 percent potential profit wasn’t attractive because the average payback from other projects is so much higher, he said. “It’s hard for Chevron to make major investments in anything that would be dilutive to its return,” he said. “It all comes down to getting good enough returns for our shareholders.”

Algae Fuel


Spending on biofuels has shrunk, he said, declining to give details. A leading producer of geothermal energy, Chevron expects to spend about $2 billion between 2012 and 2014 on renewable energy and energy efficiency, according to Morgan Crinklaw, a company spokesman.

To try to make algae fuel, Irving, Texas-based ExxonMobil said it would spend up to $600 million and hired Synthetic Genomics Inc. in 2009 to identify and modify algal strains that yield high amounts of oils. The oil company promoted the work in ads with a scientist saying, “We’re making a big commitment to finding out just how much algae can help to meet the fuel demands of the world.”

Research hit a snag in 2011 when a strain that made enough oil in a California greenhouse to meet a required milestone in the contract failed to perform in a pond at an ExxonMobil facility in Texas, according to J. Craig Venter, Synthetic Genomics’ chief executive officer and co-founder and one of the first scientists to sequence the human genome.

Long Term


ExxonMobil recast the contract, leading to layoffs of more than half the Synthetic Genomics employees working on biofuels for the oil company, according to former managers and scientists involved in the project. The effort now focuses on long-term research and development rather than commercial production, said Heather Kowalski, a spokeswoman for La Jolla, California-based Synthetic Genomics.

Charles Engelmann, a spokesman for ExxonMobil, declined to discuss details of the partnership or comment on the company’s opposition to the low-carbon rule’s timeline.

That’s being targeted by Fueling California, an advocacy group whose major funder is Chevron and that spent more than $327,000 in 2011 and 2012 lobbying on fuel and transportation policies, according to state disclosure forms.

The Air Resources Board’s Nichols said regulators haven’t been swayed by the arguments, among them that the economy will suffer if implementation of the rule isn’t delayed. “At this point we’re not seeing any need to change course,” she said.

Corporate Representatives


Both Chevron and ExxonMobil help finance the Houston-based Consumer Energy Alliance, which runs ad and Web campaigns warning low-carbon mandates could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. After the alliance lobbied in New Hampshire last year, lawmakers passed a law prohibiting the state from participating in any low-carbon fuel program without legislative approval.

In January, the Washington-based American Legislative Exchange Council, which writes bills it recommends to legislators, endorsed a measure based on the New Hampshire law that it’s urging other states to adopt.

The council is made up of lawmakers and corporate representatives. Company memberships cost from $7,000 to $25,000 annually, and those that belong include ExxonMobil, the coal concern Peabody Energy Corp. and Koch Industries Inc., a chemical, textile, trading and refining conglomerate whose co- owners, Charles and David Koch, have supported the Tea Party.

Front Line


The council opposes government dictating Americans’ fuel choices, said Todd Wynn, director of the energy, environment and agriculture task force at the group. It also encourages legislators to repeal mandates -- which exist in 29 states -- requiring renewable energy from solar, wind and other sources to be part of the electric power mix.

This year, 30 bills to kill or weaken renewable rules have been considered in 16 states, according to the North Carolina Solar Center in Raleigh, which tracks such measures. None have passed so far.

California, the most populous state, is the front line: Emission controls enacted there since 1966 have been models for federal car-pollution and miles-per-gallon rules.

The state began to phase in the low-carbon standard in 2011. When it’s fully in effect in 2020, greenhouse gas emissions associated with transportation fuels are supposed to be 10 percent less than they were in 2010.

Transportation Mix


The state’s 32 million vehicles consume 15 billion gallons of gasoline each year, according to state data, and emit 160 million metric tons of greenhouse gases annually, 36 percent of all such emissions in California.

Right now, the state is on track to achieve the goal, according to Stanley Young, a spokesman for the Air Resources Board. Neither the agency nor Chevron and ExxonMobil will disclose how the companies are complying with the rule.

The U.S. government first spurred interest in biofuels, after President George W. Bush signed laws in 2005 and 2007 ordering more non-petroleum ingredients in the fuel supply.

The laws required refiners, importers and blenders to put 16.6 billion gallons of renewables into the mix by 2013. At least 1 billion gallons would have to come from cellulosic biofuels, which, unlike the widely used ethanol supplement derived from corn, are harvested from non-food crops, including switch grass and woody debris.

Fading Appetite


To meet its obligations, Chevron in 2008 teamed up with Weyerhaeuser to start Catchlight. Its goal was 17 plants by 2029, making 2 billion gallons annually, with spending of $370 million by 2013, according to a Catchlight business plan.

“There was a lot of enthusiasm that we would move forward on a path to develop something significant,” said Denny Hunter, Catchlight’s chief technology officer in 2008 and 2009 and a former vice president of technology for pulp, paper and packaging at Federal Way, Washington-based Weyerhaeuser.

Chevron’s appetite for biofuels began to fade after about a year, according to Hunter, Bryan and other former officials affiliated with Catchlight. A key reason, they said, was the shrinking federal cellulosic biofuels directive.

The laws Bush signed instruct the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to adjust requirements based on supplies, which have never reached the goal. The EPA’s cellulosic biofuels mandate for 2013 is 99 percent below the original target.

‘No Urgency’


Chevron’s biofuels plan wound up in the cross-hairs of cost analysts in 2009 when they determined it would be a better bet to buy renewable fuel credits rather than keep trying to make the product, according to Bryan and two other former employees who asked not to be identified because they were discussing confidential company information. Credits, purchased from the government or producers who exceed low-carbon obligations, allow non-reducers to abide by clean fuel regulations.

After the cost analysts’ report, the Catchlight budget was stripped of money for plants, said Hunter, the former chief technologist who said he retired in 2009 because he was unhappy with the joint-venture’s direction. Chevron “no longer wanted to be a leader in biofuels,” he said.

In April 2010, Chevron and Weyerhaeuser told Catchlight to ratchet back, according to an internal business plan that set the 2013 budget at $8.9 million -- 98 percent lower than previously envisioned.

The Catchlight board said in the plan there was “no urgency” to commercialize and that, “in the absence of mandates,” the first plant “should be driven by financial returns.” The return on the investment would have to “meet or exceed” 20 percent, according to the plan.

‘Technical Winner’


That shocked scientists who were confident they’d come up with a process that would work, called solvent liquefaction, according to Jim Stevens, a chemist who researched technologies for 29 years at Chevron before being laid off in December 2010.

They’d constructed a contraption the size of a Winnebago that used a chemical solvent to turn woody biomass into fuel. It began producing in February 2010. “This was a real technical winner,” Stevens said.

Catchlight roughed out the numbers for a $504 million solvent liquefaction plant producing 92 million gallons a year at a cost of $2.18 a gallon, according to a 2010 internal report that laid out the technical and economic prospects for producing biofuels on a commercial scale. Making gasoline costs between $2 a gallon and $2.75 a gallon when oil prices are $70 a barrel to $100 a barrel, according to another Catchlight document.

‘Still Learning’


The joint venture never performed final tests on the biofuels process, Stevens said. “They just quit trying.”

Chevron hasn’t stopped working on developing biofuels products, according to Crinklaw, the company spokesman.

Taxpayers will help pay for future solvent liquefaction research. It will be conducted at Iowa State University with a $3.5 million federal grant covering 80 percent of the costs, and Catchlight the rest.

Catchlight is also supplying wood chips to Pasadena, Texas- based KiOR Inc., a biofuels producer that announced its first shipment of cellulosic diesel in March. Chevron has a contract to purchase some of KiOR’s renewable fuels. Weyerhaeuser is happy with the joint venture’s status, said David Godwin, vice president of minerals and energy products.

In October 2010, six months after Chevron and Weyerhaeuser put the brakes on at Catchlight, Chevron ran television and print ads about its work on non-petroleum fuels. “Something’s got to be done. So we’re doing it,” the ads said. “We’re not just behind renewables. We’re tackling the challenges of making them affordable and reliable on a large scale.”

Chevron officials didn’t respond to questions about the advertising campaign.

“We remain interested in the solvent liquefaction technology but, like other biofuels production technologies, it is early in its development, and we’re still learning about it,” Crinklaw said in an e-mailed statement. “Unfortunately, the technology hasn’t advanced as quickly as we hoped.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Elgin in San Francisco at belgin@bloomberg.net; Peter Waldman in San Francisco at pwaldman@bloomberg.net
 
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gary Putka at gputka@bloomberg.net

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

First Commercial Cellulosic Ethanol Plant in US Goes Bankrupt

http://www.energytribune.com/75180/first-commercial-cellulosic-ethanol-plant-in-us-goes-bankrupt

Ed. note: This piece was first ptublished on Robert Rapier’s R-Squared Energy Blog.

First Qualifying Cellulosic Ethanol

 

Last year, to much fanfare, the first batch of qualifying cellulosic ethanol was produced (i.e., it qualified for credits under the EPA program for certifying ethanol for sales). I reported on the development at that time.

Western Biomass Energy LLC, a subsidiary of Blue Sugars Corporation (previously KL Energy) reported the major milestone of claiming the first cellulosic ethanol tax credits under the RFS2 for a 20,069 gallon batch of cellulosic ethanol produced from bagasse (sugar cane waste) in April 2012.

However, regular readers are aware that for years I have been deeply skeptical that cellulosic ethanol as envisioned by — and ultimately mandated by — the US government will be an economic and scalable fuel option. The obstacles to success are significant, and I have described them in detail on many occasions.

Nevertheless, there is the possibility that in some niche applications that modest amounts of cellulosic ethanol may be produced for sale. One of those niches is from waste biomass such as bagasse that is produced during the processing of sugarcane. But in general – despite the proclamations from promoters like Vinod Khosla – the chemistry and physics are formidable obstacles working against the success of cellulosic ethanol. I will state in no uncertain terms that I don’t believe it can ever be mass-produced more cheaply than corn ethanol, and that industry’s financial trouble are well-documented.

Another Reality Check

 

I was extremely skeptical that the batch of cellulosic ethanol produced by Western Biomass was anything more than a publicity stunt rather than an indication that they had actually managed to conquer the economics of the process. My skepticism was heightened when they never produced another qualifying batch for the rest of the year, and that one batch they did produce was exported to Brazil to be used at the Rio+20 Conference.

Now comes news that Western Biomass Energy has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. In my column in which I reported on the initial production of cellulosic ethanol from Western Biomass, I noted:
Cellulosic ethanol commercialization still faces a number of challenges. Capital and operating costs are expected to remain higher than for corn ethanol producers, and even they are currently struggling with low margins. The ethanol market also faces the hurdle of the blend wall, which makes it difficult to expand domestic production without increases in E15 and E85 consumption, and/or ethanol exports.
It will continue to be true that as long as the US government incentivizes these ventures, companies will continue to pursue them. But I believe it is also true that every gallon of production they make will be produced at a significant per gallon loss. Mother nature simply didn’t design cellulose to be easily accessible, and extracting the cellulose, converting the cellulose into sugars, fermenting those sugars to ethanol, and finally purifying that ethanol will continue to be capital and energy-intensive operations.

Investors Should be Cautious

 

In addition to Western Biomass, one other company has produced qualifying cellulosic fuel. Vinod Khosla-backed KiOR announced earnings this week, while at the same time announcing that they had shipped their first batch of qualifying cellulosic diesel. This was presented as great news, and KiOR’s share price initially surged on the news. But a closer reading of their financial statement signals the kind of warning flags about KiOR that I have been waving for over a year:

The Pasadena, Texas-based firm lost $0.28 per share during the fourth quarter, falling short of the $0.15 per share loss in Q4 2011. However, it beat the Wall Street consensus of a loss of $0.32 per share.

 Fourth quarter revenue rounded out at $87,000 – the company’s first revenue since   inception. This fell drastically short of the $1.62 million analysts hoped for.
So, revenues were 95% less than expected. Yikes. Also the company’s cash and cash equivalents declined by $91 million over the previous year, down to $41 million. KiOR’s clock is ticking. They will likely find more investors willing to take a chance on them, but even though I have a couple of friends who work there, I am not optimistic about their long-term chances of competing in the motor fuel arena. As long as natural gas prices remain low, they will probably limp along, but their heavy dependence on cheap natural gas is a risk factor unrecognized by most investors.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

KiOR announces cellulosic diesel shipment, 2012 financial results

http://www.biomassmagazine.com/articles/8745/kior-announces-cellulosic-diesel-shipment-2012-financial-results

By Erin Voegele | March 19, 2013
On March 18 KiOR Inc. announced the initial shipment of cellulosic diesel from its commercial-scale plant in Columbus, Miss. On the same day, the company reported financial results for the fourth quarter of 2012 as well as the entire fiscal year. According to the financial release, KiOR recorded its first revenues since inception during the fourth quarter 2012.

Fred Cannon, KiOR’s president and CEO, called the cellulosic diesel shipment a major step forward for his company, the biofuels industry, and the renewable fuels sector. “With first production at Columbus, KiOR has technology with the potential to resurrect each and every shut down paper mill in the country and to replace imported oil on a cost effective basis while creating American jobs,” he said. “This facility demonstrates the efficacy of KiOR's proprietary catalytic biomass-to-fuel process with the potential to deliver cellulosic gasoline and diesel to the U.S. We are proud to be making history in Mississippi. The technology is simply scalable and we believe sufficient excess feedstock exists in the Southeast alone to build almost fifty KiOR commercial scale facilities."

Cannon added that the U.S. EPA’s recent actions to qualify cellulosic gasoline for the renewable fuel standard (RFS) market and increase the gasoline blend rate to 25 percent have de-risked KiOR’s business strategy and created a market for the company’s hydrocarbon fuels that is nearly twice the size of the current ethanol market.

During the fourth quarter of 2012, KiOR posted a net loss of $29.7 million, compared to a net loss of $27 million during the prior quarter. Net loss for the full year was $96.4 million, compared to a net loss of $64.1 million in 2011.

KiOR recorded its first revenues since inception during the final three months of 2012. The $87,000 in revenue is attributed to the sale of blended cellulosic diesel from the company’s research and development facility. The fuel was blended with fossil diesel. The cost of revenue for the quarter was $68,000, and related to the first sale, including production, shipping and blending costs.
During a call to discuss the results, Cannon noted his company faces three primary risks: technology scale-up risk, regulatory risk, and financial risk. Since the last financial update was made in November, Cannon said KiOR has made substantial progress in addressing all three risks.

“A mitigation of scale-up risk due to commercial production of cellulosic gasoline and diesel at Columbus is a remarkable achievement by the KiOR team,” he said. “ In four years we have successfully achieved a 20,000 ton scale up in our proprietary biomass to fuels technology from proof of concept in our pilot plant to our demonstration plant and now to our first commercial scale facility at Columbus.”

While KiOR had previously stated it expected commercial shipments of biofuels to commence in late 2012, Cannon noted the company encountered unexpected startup issues unrelated to its technology, but has since overcome those normal startup issues and proven that KiOR’s biomass-to-fuels technology works at commercial scale. “In fact, we know now that our technology performs better in terms of quality as it is scaled,” he continued. “From very good oil at the very small pilot plant to even improved quality oil at the demo and now to our best ever quality oil made at Columbus. So high in quality we’re converting over 90 percent of our oil from Columbus into transportation fuel.” The conversion rate for conventional crude oil is only about 70 percent, he added.

Regarding regulatory risk, Cannon said that the EPA’s recent pathway rulemaking was the last hurdle to KiOR’s ability to fully participate in the mandated RFS2 market. “What this means is that every gallon of cellulosic gasoline and diesel that comes out of KiOR’s Columbus facility and all our future facilities will generate 1.5 or 1.7 cellulosic grams per gallon, which unlocks significant additional value for KiOR relative to nearly all other renewable fuel companies,” he said.

Cannon also spoke about EPA’s approval of an increased Part 79 registration for blending KiOR’s cellulosic gasoline at levels up to 25 percent. “At a 25 percent blend, KiOR has a 33 billion gallon per year domestic market for its cellulosic gasoline. This is more than the entire RFS2 renewable volume obligation in 2022. By comparisons, this is double the size of the ethanol market and without any blend wall limitations,” Cannon continued.

During the call, Cannon also addressed two factors he said KiOR believes will de-risk its funding risk. First, he said, is the achievement of milestones. Second, he continued, is flexibility. “In our experience, one of the best ways to drive value in any financing process, whether debt or equity, is to have the flexibility to raise financing when the market allows a company to maximize the value for its existing shareholders,” he said, noting that Alberta Investment Management Co. and Vinod Khosla have agreed to amend the loan agreement KiOR signed last year in order to give the company flexibility it needs from a liquidity perspective to drive financing for the Natchez facility.

“Specifically, we have increased the potential launch under the agreement from $75 million of current principal to $125 million, with affiliates of Vinod Khosla committed to funding that additional $50 million upon request from the company,” Cannon continued. “If funded, this additional funding would automatically convert into equity in connection with future financing for the Natchez project, which further enhances our flexibility going forward.”

Monday, March 18, 2013

KiOR ships first cellulosic diesel volumes from Miss. biorefinery

http://www.biodieselmagazine.com/articles/9006/kior-ships-first-cellulosic-diesel-volumes-from-miss-biorefinery

By Ron Kotrba | March 18, 2013


KiOR Inc. announced initial shipments of cellulosic diesel from its first commercial-scale facility in Columbus, Miss., where the company uses pine wood chips that previously fed a now-defunct paper mill to produce cellulosic gasoline and diesel fuels. The $213 million facility is scaled to process 500 bone dry tons of sustainably harvested woody biomass per day. It can produce more than 13 million gallons of gasoline, diesel and fuel oil blendstocks annually.

KiOR's renewable gasoline is also the first renewable cellulosic gasoline registered by U.S. EPA for sale in the U.S.

Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. Secretary of State and a current member of KiOR's board of directors, said, “KiOR is changing the American energy equation by innovating and commercializing an entirely new generation of hydrocarbon-based diesel and gasoline fuel. By making the promise of cellulosic fuels a reality, KiOR demonstrates that these fuels are an attractive option for lessening America's dependence on foreign sources of energy.”

Haley Barbour, former Governor of Mississippi, who was instrumental in attracting KiOR to Mississippi, said, “The shipment of this first fuel from KiOR's Columbus, Miss., facility is the culmination of a vision to establish Mississippi as the birthplace of the wood-to-fuels production technology. This progress highlights our highly skilled labor force, abundant natural resources and supportive government climate for innovative companies like KiOR seeking a home to expand their businesses. Mississippi has partnered with KiOR throughout this history-making project, contributing economic development support ranging from research and testing projects within our world class universities, to technical training within our superb community college system.”

“This is a major step forward for KiOR, the biofuels industry and the entire renewable fuels sector,” said Fred Cannon, KiOR's president and CEO. “With first production at Columbus, KiOR has technology with the potential to resurrect each and every shut down paper mill in the country and to replace imported oil on a cost-effective basis while creating American jobs. This facility demonstrates the efficacy of KiOR's proprietary catalytic biomass-to-fuel process with the potential to deliver cellulosic gasoline and diesel to the U.S. We are proud to be making history in Mississippi. The technology is simply scalable and we believe sufficient excess feedstock exists in the Southeast alone to build almost 50 KiOR commercial-scale facilities.”

The company plans to build a similar but larger facility in Natchez, Miss., scaled to process three times the woody biomass as the Columbus biorefinery.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Cellulosic Ethanol Inches Forward

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/512501/cellulosic-ethanol-inches-forward/

Kevin Bullis
March 13, 2013

The technology for making fuel from wood chips and grass is late, but still on the way. 

A few years ago, large scale, billion-gallon-a-year cellulosic ethanol production seemed around the corner. Instead we’ve seen companies fail, or scale back and delay their plans, as they find it hard to secure financing or bring down costs. The technology seems to have dropped off the radar, except for the occasional news of opposition to a mandate requiring the use of cellulosic ethanol.

Still, there are signs of progress. This week ZeaChem announced it started production at a 250,000 gallon demonstration plant that is making chemicals that can be used to make ethanol and other things. Two companies, Ineos and Kior, have finished construction at larger plants that can produce 8 and 11 million gallons of fuel. They’re in the process of starting those plants up. And Poet and Abengoa hope to finish construction on even larger plants—25 million gallon ones-by the end of the year.

It’s still not clear that these companies can make ethanol profitably. ZeaChem is hedging its bets. It can make ethanol if that’s the most profitable option. Or it can convert the acetic acid it makes to chemicals such as propylene. Other advanced fuels companies, such as Amyris, are also pursuing chemicals at first.

But there are plenty of challenges involved in trying to break into existing chemical markets, especially if the chemicals are low-cost commodities. For example, chemicals like propylene are typically made by big petrochemical companies at huge well-integrated plants that make many chemicals, and have low costs that will be hard to compete with.

Monday, February 18, 2013

The Compression Spread

 
| February 8, 2013 
 

You’ve heard about the crack spread, and the crush spread — as means to value oil refining and crop refining.

Let’s think about biomass densification and compression, and in that context, a little about KiOR.

You might have heard a little or a lot about KiOR — which is currently commissioning its first commercial-scale (11 million gallon) biofuels plant in Columbus, Mississippi.

Now, the oil industry might, via the American Petroleum Institute, be currently talking down the validity of the Renewable Fuel Standard — but it is not entirely clear that KIOR would have found the financing that it did without the EISA Act galvanizing investors into action.

KiOR’s secret sauce

 

Now, it is getting more clear — among all the glittering pieces of technology that the biofuels industry has developed — that the oil refining and marketing sector would really, really like to have invented KiOR’s BFCC unit — KiOR’s secret sauce.

What is a BFCC? It is a fluidized-bed catalytic cracker that works with biomass (in KiOR’s case, they are working now with southern yellow pine they expect to obtain at $72 per bone-dry ton).

KiOR-graphic

Why is it coveted? It takes biomass, which has low density, and liquifies it into an intermediate with very high energy density — and does so at a transformatively low cost. That intermediate can be hydrotreated into an in-spec drop-in fuel — either in the gasoline range, or diesel, or even jet.

Why is that important? Because it is expected to be available at a lower cost than the marginal cost of oil production — when taken to an appropriate scale.

Equally importantly — because it is produced from renewable biomass — it can help de-carbonize an atmosphere that is producing increasingly wacky weather.

The marginal cost of producing oil

 

In a world where oil prices are highly volatile, one statistic for price prediction has held true for a long time — and that it is averaged cost of marginal production of oil for the world’s 50 largest public oil companies.

What exactly does ” the marginal cost of production” mean? It is the cost of exploring and capturing the last barrel of oil needed to meet overall global demand.

Bernstein Research circulated a note last year estimating that the marginal cost of production (for the top 50 public companies — note that some national oilcos have very different cost structures) increased by 229 percent between 2001 and 2010. Meanwhile, oil prices increased by 228%. Eureka — a driver of long-term oil prices.

It stands to reason. If the oil price falls below the marginal cost of production – production stalls until the price rises. That’s simple economics.

All that lovely Bakken crude

 

Further, it is not as easy as many suppose to disrupt that price with, for example, an explosion of oil production in the Bakken oilfields of North Dakota or the tar sands of western Canada. Bakken crude sells at a very deep discount, already, to Brent Crude — the spread has exceeded $30 per barrel at times.

That’s because of the lack of pipeline and railcar capacity to move it to international markets.

Which brings us back to KiOR — and the possibility that, long-term, the future of the company may focus less on building complete field–to-wheels fuel capacity via hydrotreating intermediates onsite, at its own facilities.

It has a future — perhaps a very big one— not so much as a supplier of finished fuels to its own customer base of fuel buyers, but as a supplier of crude-equivalent feedstocks to existing refinery infrastructure.

That’s where that $92 a barrel becomes important — not the $100-$115 retail value of the barrel, but the production cost of that barrel.

Recovering prehistoric algae as an energy business

 

You see, at the end of the day what you get from punching holes in the ground (i.e. oil exploration) is a well tapping into some prehistoric algae which — over 60 million years or so — has been transformed by Nature into crude petroleum and natural gas.

Nature made the biomass for free — via its own cocktails of carbon dioxide, water, and trace nutrients. Then, Nature conveniently densified the biomass for free, too. What we pay for is the harvest — it’s the energy equivalent of hunter-gatherer.

With a barrel of oil, you get around 5.8 million BTUs. That’s around $15.86 per million BTUs for the marginal cost of production.

In the case of KiOR, you have to pay for the biomass — the aforementioned $72 for each bone-dry ton. In that ton, you start with 14-20 million BTUs. So, you are paying $3.60-$5.14 per million BTUs for the wood.

The problem is, you can’t burn wood in a car engine — and even if you could, you think range anxiety for battery-electric vehicles is bad. Sheesh!

So, here’s the challenge, and here’s the prize, and a caveat.

 

Challenge? Densify the wood biomass into a crude-equivalent refinery feedstock for less than $12.72 per ton of biomass, including your operating and capital costs and your cost of capital.

Prize? Well, the International Energy Agency expects that energy demand will rise some 50 percent over the next 25 years — rising demand that you can serve.

Caveat? Lowest-cost producer wins. No one is likely to buy your $92 per barrel intermediate if there’s a $90 barrel available.

Catalytic fast pyrolysis

 

Where does this all lead us? In the case of making crude-equivalent intermediates — catalytic fast pyrolysis has emerged, of late, as the lowest-cost path towards answering that challenge. It is not entirely clear this class of technologies will actually reach scale — and reach the targeted costs — and find boatloads of affordable capital any time soon. But the signs are quite encouraging.

Catalytic fast pyrolysis — that’s what KiOR does. That’s why so many people watch their development with such attention. Why there is such an intense interest in their progress that media have been snooping around the plants, trying to get information on production prior to the company’s quarterly earnings call (earnings are expected to be reported March 25, according to NASDAQ).

Other paths to biofuels heaven

 

Nor is it entirely certain that crude-equivalent intermediates are the only viable path to market. For instance — there is the entire class of alcohol fuels, which are controversial in the US and the EU because of infrastructure issues, but are well-established in Brazil.

Crude-equivalent intermediates certainly are attractive — if one of your goals is to avoid finding out how much the oil & gas industry is willing to spend to send you to the devil, if you come up with a technological path to affordable meeting transportation fuel demand that doesn’t pass through oil refineries.

The oil industry’s anguish over alcohols is as profound as the Prohibition Party’s anguish used to be.

Back to KiOR

 

So — that brings us back to KiOR, and its prospects. We’ll know quite a lot more on the next earnings call. For now, they are in the business of making finished fuels and earning revenues from RINs and fuel sales.

For sure, right now they are proving the validity of their process to investors. One might speculate that they are also surrounding their IP — their secret sauce — with a complete path to market so that never become the captive of a refiner & marketer who can form a barrier to entry between their crude and the downstream gas station. With ethanol producers we have seen, ahem, where that can lead.

Long-term — we don’t see a process that can turn that much southern yellow pine (and other biomass, down the line) into sub-$92 crude-equivalent intermediates having a market cap of $584 million, as KiOR has today. If the technology does not work out — well, it’s not very valuable, is it? But if it does work out – as sports broadcaster Keith Jackson used to say “Whoa, Nelly!”.

Why? Looked at it as a technology that converts resources into proved reserves (valued at, say, $20 per barrel, or the spread between Brent crude and the marginal cost of production) – KiOR is valued at around 29 million barrels of oil. That’s the volume of oil you get from converting 400,000 tons of wood into oil refining intermediates.

But there’s a lot more wood out there.

The above-ground oil field a/k/a the US wood basket

 

The US Department of Energy, in their Billion Ton update study in 2011, estimated that there would be 120 million tons of wood biomass available, per year, at $80 per ton, that could be sustainably used for bioenergy. The figure declines to around 85 million tons at $40 per ton.

That’s a big spread.

So — in all things biofuel – keep that cost of densification very much in your mind.

The Compression Spread

 

In traditional oil and agricultural economics, we think about the the cost of liberating a known molecule. In the new bioenergy — getting biomass sufficiently densified, via technology instead of Nature — may open the door to ultra low-cost feedstocks and some amazing upside value for the liberators and their inventions.

That’s the compression spread.
 

Monday, December 31, 2012

Biofuels Digest’s 2012 Best Project (Thermochemical) Award: KiOR — Columbus, Mississippi

http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2012/12/31/biofuels-digests-2012-best-project-thermochemical-award-kior-columbus-mississippi/

| December 31, 2012 
There’s much to admire about KiOR’s first small commercial project – but three factors stood out for us.

It was built on time, on budget, and produces a drop-in, cellulosic product. That’s transformative on three levels — and with scale-up to the 60 million gallon level, the economics are expected to be as compelling as the story. For any producer of wood products, its one of the best bits of news to come down the pikeway in a long, long time.

READ MORE: All about the project, here.
 



Friday, December 21, 2012

Can KiOR soar?

http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2012/12/21/can-kior-soar/

| December 21, 2012 
 
By: Robert Rapier, Energy Trends Insider
Last month KiOR announced the start of production of biocrude from their Columbus, Mississippi plant. KiOR CEO Fred Cannon stated in an earnings call that when the product shipped it would be “the world’s first cellulosic gasoline and diesel fuel products.” While I can immediately think of at least 4 other companies who previously made cellulosic diesel and/or gasoline — Choren , Rentech, Envergent, and Community Power Corporation — we can forgive Mr. Cannon for this oversight in his excitement.

Some readers may recall that a year ago I argued that KiOR’s then $2 billion market capitalization was much too high based on the technical risks, the value of competing companies, and the fact that ultimately they were more like an oil refiner than a high tech company.

Since that column was published, the market cap of KiOR has plunged to $636 million. But now that production has begun, I have been asked several times whether my opinion of KiOR has changed. 

Bear in mind that my view was never that KiOR had an unworkable or unscalable technology (although a number of incorrect or misleading facts about the company’s process were widely reported). But my view was that they still had a very rough path to commercialization, and their value a year ago reflected the irrational exuberance that existed across the sector. I still believe that KiOR’s odds for long-term success are long, but they have hired competent people to give them the best chance of making it.

Initial production is an important milestone, but other important milestones are ahead. Many pitfalls await, and most companies in this space will fail to navigate them. But their technology is legitimate. Further, the Department of Energy forecast earlier this year that while the current cost to produce gasoline from pyrolysis oil is well above the cost to produce gasoline from petroleum, by 2017 the cost of pyrolysis-based gasoline is projected to fall to $2.32/gallon.

Biofuels Digest reported that KiOR’s projected production cost upon scale-up in 2013 would be $5.95/gallon. Further projections are that as they proceed up the learning curve and scale further that the cost of production would fall to $3.73 per gallon in 2014, and then to $2.62 per gallon at full-scale.

The company faces risks around biomass costs, natural gas costs (a very important input which becomes clear when one notices that reported fuel outputs of 11 million gallons per year have much greater energy content than the reported wood inputs of 500 bone dry tons per day), and their ability to raise additional funds that will be required for continued scale-up.

As a result, I think KiOR’s share price will continue to be volatile. In the short term, continued incentives for 2nd generations biofuels will help ease their burn rate. But as long as government support of 2nd generation biofuels remains after the fiscal cliff dust settles, KiOR has a realistic chance of crossing the Valley of Death and becoming a company that could maintain a viable business.

This article was republished with permission from Consumer Energy Report under a content partnership with Biofuels Digest, and originally appeared in Energy Trends Insider, a free newsletter from Consumer Energy Report focusing on financial and investment issues in the energy industry.

Friday, December 14, 2012

Policy Shifts Signal Growth Ahead for Advanced Biofuels

http://www.forbes.com/sites/pikeresearch/2012/12/14/policy-shifts-signal-growth-ahead-for-advanced-biofuels/



12/14/2012 @ 4:15PM

 Mackinnon Lawrence, Contributor

This has been a tough year for the U.S. biofuels industry: drought curtailed corn starch ethanol production and investment in the industry shrank to its lowest level in nearly a decade.  Headed into 2013, though, industry momentum appears to be regaining steam.  Led by advanced biofuels, the potential for expanding biofuels production has improved dramatically as Washington offers clarity on key policy issues.

Last week, in a vote on partisan lines, the U.S. Senate extended support for the military’s efforts to scale up advanced biofuels production.  As reported in Biofuels Digest, it approved an amendment offered by Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina to repeal a section of the annual Defense appropriations bill that would have prohibited “the Secretary of Defense or any other official from the Department of Defense (DoD) from entering into a contract to plan,  design, refurbish, or construct a biofuels refinery or any other facility or infrastructure used to refine biofuels unless such planning, design, refurbishment, or construction is specifically authorized by law.”

Over the past year, the U.S. military has emerged as a key torchbearer leading the commercialization of advanced biofuels.  Spearheaded by the Navy, which signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Department of Energy (DOE) to develop cost-competitive advanced biofuels, the DoD has been a lone bright spot for an industry that has suffered from press blowback and investor retrenchment in recent years.

Only $84 Billion to Go

Prior to the Hagan amendment, the Senate approved another amendment, offered by Senator Mark Udall of Colorado, to repeal section 313 of the annual Defense appropriations bill.  Offered by Republican Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma, Section 313 would have prohibited the DoD from procuring alternative fuels if they cost more than their conventional counterparts.  The section was introduced in response to the U.S. Navy’s highly criticized purchase of advanced biofuels from firms like Solazyme and Dynamic Fuels for its “Great Green Fleet” exercises off the coast of Hawaii, at an estimated price-tag of $15 per gallon.

These bills are expected to facilitate public-private partnerships and funnel much-needed capital to support advanced biorefinery construction within the United States.  In our Industrial Biorefineries report, Pike Research forecasts that at least 13 billion gallons of advanced biorefinery production capacity will come online over the next decade in the United States.  Although that falls short of the 21 billion gallons of advanced biofuels carved out under the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), more than $60 billion will be invested over that same period.

With the minimum cost of scale-up to meet the advanced biofuel production mandate estimated at $84 billion, the industry still has significant ground to make up.  Although continued federal support will help assuage investor fears, uncertainties around feedstock supply and production profitability persist, translating into high levels of risk for investors.

Advanced biofuels, which address these concerns at least in part, have enjoyed a rising tide of policy support in recent months from Washington.  In August, Congress allocated $170 million to support the development of military biofuels and other defense initiatives, voted to extend key tax credits for advanced biofuel producers, and granted algae producers tax credit parity with other feedstock pathways.  Meanwhile, the recent commissioning of first-of-kind facilities from advanced biofuel producers KiOR and INEOS Bio are strong indicators of a maturing cellulosic biofuels industry.