http://www.icis.com/Articles/2012/10/01/9599041/socma-us-keen-to-tap-into-gas-supply.html
27 September 2012 10:53 [Source: ICB]
Some
political leaders and many in manufacturing outside the chemical
industry do not fully appreciate the huge potential of shale
gas as a game changer for the US economy, according to an executive from the country's second largest natural gas producer,
Chesapeake Energy Corporation.
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"From the beginning of 2013 we'll start to see those dollars rolling in"
Bill WinceVice president of business development, Chesapeake
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According
to Chesapeake, US gas resources are so vast that production could be
doubled from current levels. However, this will only happen if gas
prices return to levels that make gas drilling viable - somewhere in the
$4-6/MMBtu range, substantially higher than the levels seen today.
At
these prices, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) would still be
a very attractive resource for the chemical industry and other
industrial sectors, Chesapeake says.
Bill Wince, vice president
of business development for Chesapeake, points out that the
petrochemical industry uses natural gas for process energy and NGLs like
ethane and
propane
as a feedstock. With such a comprehensive use of natural gas for its
operations, the chemical industry benefits significantly from increased
resource availability and modest prices.
He believes the
chemical manufacturers that are adding NGL cracking capacity in the US
have a great opportunity to capture value through exports.
"Though there
are no restrictions on exporting raw NGLs, those who can process raw
NGLs in the US have excellent opportunities to market their products in
higher priced global markets," he adds.
Smaller and specialty
chemical manufacturers will also have much more attractive input costs
thanks to shale gas. "Our message is that you'll have a real advantage
in the US and you need to be looking at ways to take advantage of that
for domestic markets and for export."
The figures speak for
themselves: following years of decline, industrial demand for gas has
grown each year for the past three years as prices have fallen. "Those
who can switch to gas have done so. But some of the fundamental shifts
take time because they require new investments," says Wince.
Lower
natural gas prices have generated significant new demand opportunities
in the US, he says. The most immediate demand response has been in the
power sector, as low gas prices have allowed gas-fired generation to
displace
coal.
Mothballed fertiliser plants have been brought back on stream, and
methanol facilities have been debottlenecked. Over the longer term, he says, capacity additions from
ammonia producers for fertilisers and
urea, as well as
methanol producers, will add significant new baseload industrial demand.
Wince
says: "You begin to see some major projects under construction, so from
a construction perspective the early-movers will have an advantage.
From the beginning of 2013 we'll start to see those dollars rolling in."
Gas
will also see increasing use in transportation: "People believe there
has been a fundamental change in the relationship between petroleum
prices and natural gas prices," he says. Truck engine manufacturers like
Cummins and Westport are developing engines to burn liquefied natural
gas (LNG), as are locomotive builders such as Caterpillar and GE.
VOLATILITY DECLINES
Investors
like to make long-term decisions based on predictable conditions and,
according to Wince, price volatility for natural gas and NGLs is already
decreasing thanks to all the investment in infrastructure and increased
supply.
He says: "In the past, price spikes were often
weather-driven. We would ramp up rigs in response, but this would
involve going out and finding the gas. Today, we've found the gas and
future drilling will be driven by pricing signals - that has
effectively dampened volatility."
In the past a lot of natural
gas supply was offshore so it was subject to hurricane interruptions.
Tight and shale gas is all onshore so the impact is much less
pronounced. "Katrina was a huge event for pricing; we think shale
insulates the US from that volatility," says Wince.
There has
been a huge amount of investment in gas exploration and production in
the US over the past few years, enabling producers to deliver gas in a
much more flexible and reliable way, thereby cutting volatility.
"Our
prices have traded down slowly over 3-4 years. But we had a very hot
summer and difficult winters before this last one. These would have
caused price spiking in the past but we had virtually none," he says.
Wince
adds: "You can make investment decisions based on a presumption of
lower volatility in gas markets. Investors should be confident that the
long-term equilibrium price will be favourable versus alternative fuels
and absolute prices ought to be more stable than in the past."
UNSUSTAINABLE PRICES
However,
Chesapeake sounds a note of caution over current pricing. It believes a
price of $4-6/MMBtu may be viable for producers and consumers in the
intermediate term. With prices currently tanking below $3/MMBtu and
below $4/MMBtu for the whole of this year, the number of gas rigs has
fallen from 1,400 to 452 between 2008 and 2012.
Chesapeake is not
planning to increase its number of gas rigs until it gets the right
price signals. It has significantly curtailed capital expenditure
investment in dry gas shale plays. Its budget has been adjusted so it
spends more on oil and NGL exploration instead.
"We don't think
the US can survive on incremental gas production from wet gas plays
alone, whose higher value liquids make drilling economic at lower gas
prices. Most dry gas plays don't become economic until prices are above
$4/MMBtu. A lot of gas can be found at $6 and less, so $5 is a good
midpoint," says Wince.
Chesapeake believes natural gas prices
will self-correct in the long run and make exploration and production
viable again. A record inventory of natural gas in storage in the US is
now being worked off via coal-to-gas switching in the power sector, and
that will continue through the end of this year, it says. Having
bounced back from historic lows, they expect prices to increase late
this year or early in 2013.
On the NGL side, Wince adds: "A lot
of ethane crackers had gone into maintenance in the first half of 2012.
Supply has been growing but part of the NGL price falls have been due to
plant turnarounds this year. Nevertheless, supply growth will outpace
demand until new crackers come online in the second half of this decade,
so prices may remain modest."
Wince is confident that the
$4-6/MMBtu natural gas price attractive to chemical producers can be
sustained. He expects producers will return to dry gas plays in force
when prices incentivise new drillings.
"The nominal price might
increase because of inflation but adjusted should stay favourable versus
all other fuel sources well beyond the next decade.
"Some in
government and industry still don't recognise what an incredible
resource we have and how we should leverage it. There are so many
opportunities to underpin new jobs and real economic growth," says
Wince.
As an independent oil and gas producer, Chesapeake is
investing in research to boost the use of natural gas rather than
conventional petroleum-based fuels in cars and heavy vehicles. It is
also trying to encourage utilities to increase gas usage.
The
company has also taken a 50% stake in biofuels group Sundrop Fuels,
which uses natural gas and biomass to create transportation fuels. Wince
adds: "The shale gas revolution is expanding to include more than just
shale gas. Technology is being used in older oil and gas zones, which we
call non-conventional or tight zones."
The new zones have become
extremely important over the last 2-3 years, he says. "We've seen shale
and associated drilling begin to focus away from typical dry gas zones
and rig counts are now increasing in areas like Eagleford and the wet
gas portion of Marcellus. The economics for wet gas, oil and condensate
drilling have become better as we've adapted drilling techniques used to
develop the dry gas plays."
By: Will Beacham
+44 20 8652 3214